Michael Mojarro says SNOW

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Michael Mojarro says SNOW

Postby OntarioWeatherService » Sun Sep 16, 2007 12:32 am

He thinks it's going to snow with this synoptic pattern. If it does, more power to him and congratulations.

What do I think? I think this is highly convective and more thunderstorms will form across the entire Southern California area than his snow. He quotes.

"Currently it seems possible that some snowfall could occur with this system over our local mountains as it passes through, which would be the earliest snowfall in quite sometime."


I'm leaving snow out of the forecast.

Thoughts?
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Michael Mojarro says SNOW

Postby doug m. » Sun Sep 16, 2007 7:58 pm

o.j.'s guilty. that's my thought (and michael mojarro had nothing to do with it).







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Postby OntarioWeatherService » Sun Sep 16, 2007 8:07 pm

Karma sucks doesn't it? For him, he was guilt before, and now he won't get away with it this time.
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Postby physicslord » Mon Sep 17, 2007 7:42 am

Even so, I think it will be very hard to prove that a few flakes of snow didn't fall on the top of San G.

So Mojarro can make a wild prediction like that and I doubt he'll be wrong.
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Michael mojarro says SNOW

Postby Cy Kaicener » Mon Sep 17, 2007 7:58 am

Did anyone predict snow and hail on the last day of August
http://www.1000wordsphotos.com/sangee :)
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Re: Michael mojarro says SNOW

Postby physicslord » Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:04 am

Cy Kaicener wrote:Did anyone predict snow and hail on the last day of August
http://www.1000wordsphotos.com/sangee :)


My hamster did!
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Re: Michael mojarro says SNOW

Postby HikeUp » Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:58 am

physicslord wrote:
Cy Kaicener wrote:Did anyone predict snow and hail on the last day of August
http://www.1000wordsphotos.com/sangee :)


My hamster did!


My hermit crab says that's not possible. :shock:
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Postby OntarioWeatherService » Mon Sep 17, 2007 2:52 pm

"What I saw looked like hail/snow. It could very well have been hail, but it could have been snow as well from the photos. Soundings indicated a 15,500 Foot Freezing level, with 60% RH. This would mean true snow would fall a bit lower due to drier air at that level. More like 13,000 Feet, barely missing the mountains.
Now what about if we had a major storm over the area. The storm was 65,000 Feet Tall. A massive storm for Southern California. This storm probably developed it's own environment around it. A tropical system does much of the same thing, and sense the lower levels were moist, and the air was hot, it would make it more tropical in the storm itself. This would make the updraft explode. Now take that major updraft to 65,000 Feet, and force air down from there in the massive downdraft. -120 degrees at that level or colder.

Pressure differences were 1016mb on the top of the Mountain with even higher, maybe 1025-1030mb pressure above the storm. Much like a hurricane. 9mb-14mb pressure difference would drive winds from the Highest pressure, to the lowest pressure. Cold air advection probably played a great role and the temp on the top of the mountain went below freezing in that downdraft.

As for snow? I'm not quite sure. The updraft was huge in that storm. This means that the result would be the super-cooled temps and forming SOLID ICE. This then would fall down as hail. This hail is probably colder than normal hail being how cold the atmosphere was they came from, hence the reason they are still there today.

If it was snow, the cloud would have to not be as convective to form solid ice. It would result in snow, but my final answer is HAIL, and LOTS OF IT. Someone should go up there and get a sample. It's probably different from the plains, being in a supercooled environment."

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